SRX figures show that resale volume in the HDB market has dipped from 1,587 units transacted in Dec 2017 to 1,089 in Jan, based on flash estimates.
This represents a 31.4% decline, the largest in magnitude over the last 12 months.
The resale price index has also fallen to 132.6 in Jan 2018 from 133.2 in Dec 2017. This represents a month on month decline of 0.5%.
Compared to a year ago when the resale price index was 135.1, prices have fallen 1.9%.
The trend of declining HDB resale flat prices continues.
With prices and volume both declining, it likely suggests that weakness in the HDB resale market is set to continue.
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Broken down by HDB flat types, prices in the HDB 3 room category fell the most at 2.3% on a monthly basis. This was followed by HDB 5 rooms at -1.2%.
On the other hand, HDB 4 rooms and executive flats rose 1.3% and 0.4% on a monthly basis respectively.
Categorized by mature and non-mature estates, mature estates saw a 1.8% monthly decline in the price index, compared with a 0.5% increase for non-mature estates.
SRX also has their Median HDB Transaction Over X-Value (TOX) metric which shows how much higher than the X-values flats have been transacting.
TOX is defined as: how much a buyer is overpaying or underpaying the SRX Property XValue’s estimated market value. It is analogous to the previously-used property market’s term of Cash-Over-Valuation (COV). The difference is the “V” is computer generated. In the report for HDB Resale and Non-Landed Private Resale, the SPI and the median TOX are used complementarily to gauge overall property market sentiments.
The TOX has slid further into negative territory at -S$3,000 compared with -S$2,900 in the previous month.
Through the whole of 2017, the TOX has been in negative territory except for 2017M3 and 2017M8 where the TOX was 0.
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The decline in TOX follows the general downward trend of SRX’s resale price index.
SRX’s full report for the month of Jan 2018 as follows.